全球低壓電機市場展望
http://www.debgrams.com 2016-09-13 16:24 《中華工控網》翻譯
Since the third quarter of 2014, the low-voltage motor market has struggled amid the numerous economic and political headwinds. In fact, according to the latest IHS Markit information, the global low-voltage motor market will decline nearly 13 percent, from $11.8 billion in sales in 2015 to $10.3 billion in 2017.
自2014年第三季度以來，低壓電機市場一直歷經種種經濟和政治動蕩。實際上，根據IHS Markit的最新報告，全球低壓電機市場將下降約13％，銷售額從2015年的118億美元回落到2017年的103億美元。
Despite this challenging environment, there are opportunities for motor suppliers that can adapt to the impending technological trends suppliers require. For example, motor end-users are increasingly interested in energy-efficient motors that will live longer and reduce full lifecycle costs. As the industrial internet of things (IIoT) continues to grow in customer recognition and adoption, motor manufacturers are also starting to find ways to leverage this trend to offset weak sales.
雖然市場環境充滿挑戰，但對那些能夠適應即將到來的技術發展趨勢的電機供應商而言，市場機會仍在。例如，終端用戶對高效節能電機的關注度越來越高，因為高效電機的使用壽命更長，全生命周期成本得以降低。隨著工業物聯網（IIoT）的認可度和應用率不斷上升，電機制造商也開始想辦法利用這一趨勢以抵消銷售的疲軟。
While there are reasons to be optimistic, the current political turmoil certainly harms growth prospects for the entire industrial automation equipment market throughout the next two-to-three years. As the global economy adjusts and recovers from shocking events, such as the British exit of the European Union and stalling oil prices, the low-voltage motor market revenue will decline very slightly, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of negative 0.2 percent from 2015 to 2020. However, a strong recovery is expected to begin in 2018.
盡管我們有理由感到樂觀，但目前的政治動蕩無疑損害了未來兩到三年整個工業自動化設備市場的增長前景。隨著全球經濟從英國脫歐和油價停滯等重大事件得到調整和復蘇，低壓電機市場的收入將輕微下降，從2015年至2020年的年復合增長率為負0.2%，但預計從2018年開始強勁復蘇。
While heavy industries exposed to oil and gas investment levels are not currently good areas for motor growth, there are still several industry sectors that have outperformed – or that will outperform -- the market average in the short-term. For example, the U.S. housing market is expected to experience strong growth, as is non-residential construction spending, which bodes well for motors sold into construction, infrastructure, and HVAC applications.
盡管受制于石油和天然氣投資水平的重工業目前并非電機的增長領域，仍有幾個行業表現亮眼，或者說在短期內好于市場平均水平。例如，美國房地產市場預計將強勁增長，作為非住宅建筑開支，應用于施工、基礎設施和暖通空調的電機銷售有著良好的勢頭。
A fast-growing population and rapid urbanization is also expected to cause motor shipments for food and beverage, water and wastewater, and power sectors to outperform the market average. In general the discrete manufacturing (machine builder) sectors are forecast to perform better than the process manufacturing (end-user) sectors.
快速增長的人口和快速的城市化也有望引發食品飲料、水處理，以及電力行業的電機出貨量跑贏市場平均水平。總體而言，預計離散制造（機器制造商）行業比過程制造（最終用戶）行業的表現要好。
After accounting for more than 26 percent of revenues in 2015, IE1 (standard efficiency) motors are forecast to comprise 25 percent of global low-voltage motor market revenue in 2016, and 16 percent by 2020. These products are sold mainly in the emerging markets that have yet to adopt any type of efficiency regulations; however, many leading suppliers are still successfully selling these motors in the United States, Germany and other developed countries.
2015年，IE1（標準能效）電機占全球低壓電機市場總營收的26％以上，預計2016年這一數字為25％，到2020年將下降到16％。IE1產品主要銷往那些尚未采取任何能效法規的新興市場，不過也有許多領先的供應商仍然在美國、德國和其他發達國家成功出售此類電機。
As emerging and developed regions continue to push for more efficient motors, IE2 (high efficiency), IE3 (premium efficiency), and IE4 (super-premium efficiency) motors will continue to experience growth with revenue CAGRs of 1.6 percent, 4.8 percent, and 11.3 percent, respectively. It is worth noting, however, that IE4 motors accounted for slightly more than 1 percent of total motor market revenues. Therefore, it will take a long time for this technology to be considered a dominant customer trend.
隨著新興市場和發達地區對更高效電機的繼續推動，IE2（高能效），IE3（超高能效），以及IE4（超超高能效）電機有望持續增長，預計年復合增長率分別為1.6％、4.8％，以及11.3％。值得注意的是，IE4電機僅占電機市場總營收的1%多點，因此，這項技術要想成為客戶的主導產品，仍將有很長的路要走。
Despite the ominous forecast for low-voltage motors through 2020, there are still ample opportunities for manufacturers to maintain -- and even grow -- their existing client base, through the adoption of the technological advancements end-users are beginning to require more frequently. Acquisitions and strategic partnerships, in conjunction with increased research and development investments, have allowed the leading motor manufacturers to better position themselves for the future. Even though the low-voltage motor market is not currently thriving, today’s technological developments could be the norm for motor users in the near future -- but only the companies that can adapt will be prepared for such rapid changes.
雖說到2020年低壓電機的展望不佳，但通過采納終端用戶開始愈加需要的技術改進，制造商仍然有足夠的機會來維持——甚至擴大他們現有的客戶群。在加大研發投入的同時，通過收購和戰略合作，讓領先的電機制造商能夠更好地定位自己的未來。即使目前的低壓電機市場算不上繁榮發展，但今天的技術發展在不久將來可以成為電機用戶的標準規范——不過只有那些能適應這種快速變化的公司才能有所準備。
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