全球制造業將在2024年低迷之后于2025年復蘇
http://www.debgrams.com 2024-06-05 16:02 《中華工控網》翻譯
Global Manufacturing Industry Recovery in 2025 to Follow Sluggish 2024
全球制造業將在2024年低迷之后于2025年復蘇
The global manufacturing economy will remain sluggish in 2024 and is forecast to expand by just 0.6% compared with last year. However, it looks set to recover in 2025, the latest data from Interact Analysis reveals. The market intelligence expert explains, except for China, most territories will experience a slight contraction this year, but many will be better off than expected going into 2025.
2024年全球制造業經濟將保持低迷，預計與去年相比僅增長0.6%。不過Interact Analysis的最新數據顯示，制造業經濟有望在 2025 年復蘇。這位市場情報專家解釋說，除中國外，大多數地區今年將經歷輕微萎縮，但到 2025 年，許多地區的情況將好于預期。
Although Interact Analysis has lowered growth forecasts for 2025 in its latest Manufacturing Industry Output Tracker (MIO), this is the result of a slightly improved global outlook for the end of 2024, which will in turn see most economies finish the year in a stronger position. A slight dip in the growth rate is anticipated in 2026, but manufacturing output is expected to maintain a relatively steady positive trajectory out to 2028.
盡管 Interact Analysis 在其最新的制造業產出追蹤 (MIO) 中下調了 2025 年的增長預測，但由于 2024 年底全球前景略有改善，這將使大多數經濟體以更強勁的地位結束這一年。預計 2026 年的增長率將略有下降，但預計制造業產出將保持相對穩定的正增長軌跡，直到 2028 年。
No clear signs of where recovery will come from
尚無明顯跡象表明經濟復蘇將始于何處
It is still unclear where the global manufacturing recovery will come from and until there is an upturn it is difficult to judge the potential strength. Despite optimistic signs for other territories, the latest MIO includes a slight downward revision for China compared with the previous edition; from 2.8% to 2.4%. China as ‘the factory of the world’ is responsible for almost half of the total manufacturing market value and any further reductions in the country’s forecast could well lead to a small contraction in the global MIO figure for 2024.
目前尚不清楚全球制造業復蘇將從何而來，在出現好轉之前，很難判斷潛在的實力。盡管其他地區出現了樂觀跡象，但最新的制造業產出追蹤與上一版相比，對中國的預測略有下調，從 2.8% 降至 2.4%。中國作為“世界工廠”，占制造業總市值的近一半，如果中國預測進一步下調，很可能會導致 2024 年全球制造業產出追蹤數字小幅收縮。
Consumer resilience coupled with inflation and interest rates slowly starting to fall is pushing up spending worldwide and the US manufacturing economy is strengthening. The semiconductor industry has bounced back from a low point in 2023, boosting outlook for parts of South-Asia heavily reliant on the market sector, including Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea. Dwindling order books and the impact of the higher cost of living have constrained global demand, but there are signs of recovery in consumer spending and post-Covid supply chain problems have eased considerably.
消費者的韌性加上通脹和利率開始緩慢下降，正在推高全球支出，美國制造業經濟正在增強。半導體行業已從 2023 年的低點反彈，提振了嚴重依賴市場部門的南亞部分地區的前景，包括臺灣、新加坡和韓國。訂單減少和生活成本上升的影響限制了全球需求，但有跡象表明消費者支出正在復蘇，后疫情時代的供應鏈問題已大大緩解。
However, there are various economic indicators pointing to a more challenging environment for manufacturers. All four major European manufacturing economies are in a downward cycle, and sentiment for the year remains gloomy. Positive signals from the US may well start to manifest in other regions later in the year, but this has yet to be seen.
然而，各種經濟指標表明，制造商面臨的環境更具挑戰性。歐洲四大制造業經濟體均處于下行周期，今年的市場情緒依然低迷。美國發出的積極信號很可能在今年晚些時候開始在其他地區顯現，但這還有待觀察。
Conditions remain challenging for machinery market
機械市場形勢依然嚴峻
Although the overall outlook for manufacturing is expected to improve into 2025, the machinery market is in a slightly worse position. There are variations by machinery type, but underlying factors include persistently high interest rates pushing up the price of new machinery and low order intake in the last year affecting current production figures.
盡管預計制造業的整體前景將在 2025 年有所改善，但機械市場的狀況略差。機械類型各不相同，但潛在因素包括持續的高利率推高了新機械的價格，以及去年訂單量低影響了當前的生產數據。
Adrian Lloyd, CEO at Interact Analysis, said, “The global outlook for manufacturing output is mixed to say the least. Our projections are holding but there are no clear signs of where recovery will come from and how strong it will be. As a result, we will be watching closely to see how constrained consumer spending in China, a strengthening US economy and global events will affect conditions.
Interact Analysis 首席執行官 Adrian Lloyd 表示：“全球制造業產出的前景至少可以說是喜憂參半。我們的預測是正確的，但沒有明確的跡象表明復蘇將從何而來，以及復蘇的強度如何。因此，我們將密切關注中國消費支出受限、美國經濟走強以及全球事件將如何影響形勢。
“In the latest edition of our MIO tracker, we have added some details about machinery markets and will cover additional machinery sectors in coming editions. The machinery market appears to be experiencing more challenging conditions than manufacturing overall, as global uncertainty leads to caution around investment in equipment.”
“在我們最新版的制造業產出追蹤中，我們增加了一些有關機械市場的細節，并將在未來的版本中涵蓋更多機械行業。機械市場似乎比制造業整體面臨更具挑戰性的條件，因為全球不確定性導致人們對設備投資持謹慎態度。”
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