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Global Manufacturing Compound Annual Growth Rate of 2.7% (2023-28)
2023-2028年，全球制造業(yè)復(fù)合年增長率為2.7%

Despite a tough year ahead for most regions and territories in 2024, growth will return in 2025 for many sectors. In line with Interact Analysis’ previous update to its Manufacturing Industry Output (MIO) Tracker, the company’s latest forecasts show the lowest point in the manufacturing cycle for many regions and sectors is expected to occur this year. Despite this, key regions such as the US and Germany will shrink half as much in 2024 as they did at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast with most industry sectors, the semiconductor segment is expected to have a much better 2024, following a difficult year in 2023.

盡管2024年大多數(shù)地區(qū)和領(lǐng)地將面臨艱難的一年，但許多行業(yè)將在2025年恢復(fù)增長。根據(jù)Interact Analysis此前對(duì)制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出（MIO）追蹤數(shù)據(jù)的更新，該公司的最新預(yù)測(cè)顯示，許多地區(qū)和行業(yè)的制造業(yè)周期最低點(diǎn)預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)在今年。盡管如此，到2024年，美國和德國等關(guān)鍵地區(qū)的萎縮幅度將是新冠疫情最嚴(yán)重時(shí)期的一半。與大多數(shù)行業(yè)相比，半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)在經(jīng)歷了2023年的艱難一年后，預(yù)計(jì)將在2024年有更好的表現(xiàn)。

One of the most significant adjustments Interact Analysis has made to its long-term outlook is the prediction of slower growth for the machinery segment over the next 5 years due to a weak 2023, a contraction in 2024, and concerns regarding 2025. However, the expected CAGR for APAC manufacturing between 2023 and 2028 is expected to be positive at 2.9%, followed by the US (2.4%) and Europe (2.4%).

Interact Analysis對(duì)其長期前景做出的最重大調(diào)整之一是，由于2023年疲軟、2024年萎縮以及對(duì)2025年的擔(dān)憂，預(yù)計(jì)未來5年機(jī)械行業(yè)的增長將放緩。然而，預(yù)計(jì)2023年至2028年亞太地區(qū)制造業(yè)的復(fù)合年增長率將為2.9%，其次是美國（2.4%）和歐洲（2.4%）。

In the US, the Federal Reserve shows no signs of cutting interest rates yet, suggesting the region will suffer a difficult 2024, with negative growth potentially continuing into 2025. The US economy is expected to shrink by 2.2% in 2024, before bouncing back to 3.8% In 2025, and there does not appear to be a huge demand or supply-side problem, so the downturn is not likely to be as severe as during the pandemic.

在美國，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)尚未顯示出降息的跡象，這表明該地區(qū)將經(jīng)歷艱難的2024年，負(fù)增長可能會(huì)持續(xù)到2025年。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)將在2024年萎縮2.2%，然后在2025年反彈至3.8%，而且似乎不存在巨大的需求或供應(yīng)方面的問題，因此經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷不太可能像疫情期間那樣嚴(yán)重。

In Europe, the economic outlook for 2024 looks just as bleak. Italy is in one of the worst positions, with machinery production expected to shrink by 3.7% in 2024 and the manufacturing sector to contract by 1.5%. As a result of falling wage increases and decreasing employment levels, the Italian economy is set to struggle. Interact Analysis is also predicting a manufacturing decline of -0.8% for Germany in 2024 and -1.3% for France. The UK is predicted to continue struggling while it navigates the challenges associated with a post-Brexit economy. Interact Analysis’ prediction for the UK’s manufacturing sector outlook overall in 2024 is -0.4% and -3.3% for machinery.

至于歐洲，2024年的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景同樣黯淡。意大利處于最糟糕的境地之一，預(yù)計(jì)2024年機(jī)械生產(chǎn)將萎縮3.7%，制造業(yè)將萎縮1.5%。由于工資漲幅下降和就業(yè)水平下降，意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)將陷入困境。Interact Analysis還預(yù)測(cè)，2024年德國制造業(yè)將下降0.8%，法國將下降1.3%。預(yù)計(jì)英國將繼續(xù)艱難應(yīng)對(duì)后英國退出歐盟時(shí)代的經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)。Interact Analysis對(duì)2024年英國制造業(yè)整體前景的預(yù)測(cè)為-0.4%，機(jī)械行業(yè)為-3.3%。

Adrian Lloyd, CEO at Interact Analysis comments, “While everything seems so doom and gloom, we are seeing positive order books for semiconductor machinery. This sector is in an odd position currently; as demand for semiconductor machinery increases, the production of semiconductors themselves has all but collapsed. North America’s order growth for semiconductor machinery has reached over 50% - likely due to the CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Act - while Europe and Taiwan also continue to place orders.

Interact Analysis首席執(zhí)行官Adrian Lloyd評(píng)論說:“盡管一切似乎都很悲觀，但我們看到了半導(dǎo)體機(jī)械的積極訂單。該行業(yè)目前處于一個(gè)奇怪的位置；隨著對(duì)半導(dǎo)體機(jī)械需求的增加，半導(dǎo)體本身的生產(chǎn)幾乎已經(jīng)崩潰。北美的半導(dǎo)體機(jī)械訂單增長已經(jīng)超過50%，這可能是由于芯片和通貨膨脹削減法案的原因，而歐洲和臺(tái)灣也在繼續(xù)下訂單。

“Although 2024 will be a tough year for the global manufacturing industry, our predictions suggest that the severity of the growth trough will be mild for most regions.”

“雖然2024年對(duì)全球制造業(yè)來說將是艱難的一年，但我們的預(yù)測(cè)表明，對(duì)大多數(shù)地區(qū)來說，增長低谷的嚴(yán)重程度將是溫和的。”